Nobody has a crystal ball. Not me, not the banks, and certainly not the analysts who appear in the press every week with headlines that contradict one another. What we can do is read the data, understand the patterns, and, above all, act accordingly. In the real estate market, reacting too late to a change in temperature costs real money.

And the temperature is changing.

What the Numbers Are Saying

The first quarter of 2026 has delivered a sequence we haven’t seen in years: home sales in Spain have fallen for three consecutive months. According to the INE (National Statistics Institute), the cumulative decline between January and March was 2.6%—with drops of 5% in January, 0.5% in February, and 2.2% in March. Data from the General Council of Notaries is even more telling: they have recorded year-on-year drops since October 2025, including an 11.4% decline in January 2026.

Does this mean the market is collapsing? No. Absolute figures remain high—between 57,000 and 61,000 transactions per month—well above the historical average and light years away from the 2012 low (21,276 operations in April of that year). This is not a crash. But it is the end of a phase.

There is also something far more revealing than the drop in transactions: prices are still rising. The average price per square meter stands at €2,065/m² according to Notaries, up 9% from a year ago. Tinsa pegs the year-on-year increase for the first quarter of 2026 at 14.53%. Fewer sales and higher prices happening simultaneously does not signal a market in crisis—it signals a decoupling market. Those who can afford to buy are doing so at record prices; those who cannot are being left out.

What is a “Shifting Market” (And Why It Matters)

In real estate, a shifting market is a market in transition. It is not a crash. It is not a bursting bubble. It is the exact moment when the rules that worked a year ago stop working—the moment when momentum alone is no longer enough.

The signs of a shifting market are highly recognizable: properties take longer to sell, buyers negotiate harder, the number of viewings per property drops, and sellers who fail to adjust their expectations start withdrawing their listings because they aren’t getting their target price.

This is precisely what we are seeing on the Costa del Sol in 2026. It is not happening across all segments—the premium sector and international demand remain highly active—but it is visible in a growing portion of the resale market, particularly for properties listed with aspirational prices and zero strategy.

A shifting market is not defined by plunging prices; in fact, prices can continue to rise, just as they are doing now. What defines it is that the bargaining power shifts. For the past two or three years, the seller held the cards: you set a price, received offers, and closed the sale within weeks. Today, the buyer is regaining ground. They compare more, ask for more, and wait longer. If your property fails to convince them on price or presentation, they simply move on to the next one.

Withdrawing Landlords: The Unspoken Indicator

There is a metric that rarely makes it into official reports but is highly visible to industry professionals daily: the number of owners withdrawing their homes from the market.

Why do they do it? Because the market refuses to pay what they expect. They set a price based on what their neighbor achieved a year ago, what they need to net to buy their next home, or what an optimistic valuation suggested. Months passed, viewings dried up—or failed to turn into offers—and they concluded: “We’ll just wait.”

While understandable, this decision carries a trap. Withdrawing a property does not freeze its value. When the market temperature is shifting, time does not favor a waiting seller. If you couldn’t sell at €400,000 today, you won’t sell at €420,000 tomorrow. It is far more likely that in six months you will have to return to the market at the same price or lower—and with a property that looks “stale” to active buyers, generating less interest than it did the first time around.

Furthermore, every property withdrawn unsold sends a signal: it confirms that asking prices are above what real demand is willing to pay. As these instances accumulate, general market perception changes—and in real estate, perception moves prices just as much as fundamentals do.

The Right Price: The Only Strategy That Works

If there is one central takeaway from this piece, it is this: today, more than yesterday, and definitively more than tomorrow, you must price correctly to sell.

What is the right price? It is not what you want to pocket. It is not what the property portals tell you. It is not what your neighbor got eight months ago.

The right price is the one that generates enough viewings to secure a serious offer within 90 days or less.

If your home has been listed for over 90 days without a serious offer, the issue isn’t the market, the location, or the season. The issue is the price. The property might need better staging, the paperwork might need sorting, or the photos might fail to do it justice—all of that matters. However, in 80% of cases, when a listing sees no activity, it is because the price does not align with what a real buyer is willing to pay.

In an expanding market, you can list a bit high and the market catches up to you. In a shifting market, if you list too high, the market moves away from you. Every week that passes without an adjustment widens the gap between your asking price and reality.

What Lies Ahead?

This is not 2008. There is no uncontrolled oversupply, there is no reckless lending fueling demand, and the Spanish economy—despite its challenges—is not in a recession. The fundamentals are completely different and much stronger than they were during that crisis.

However, the market is demanding something else right now: realism and strategy. It requires sellers to understand that today’s buyer is not the buyer of 2024. The difference between making a successful sale and not selling at all might come down to a €15,000 or €20,000 adjustment, changing your agency, or investing in staging the property before listing it.

Bankinter forecasts growth of 7% in 2026 and 4% in 2027—a moderation, but no correction. Supply remains structurally scarce, international demand on the Costa del Sol persists, and cash buyers remain highly active. All of this puts a solid floor under prices. But having a floor does not mean your property will sell itself. It means that if you handle the sale correctly, the market will reward you. If you don’t, it will correct your strategy faster than before.

The market waits for no one, but those who read the signs early can still choose how to play their hand.