We often meet neighbours in Benalmádena who share a very common concern. They tell us, coffee in hand, that they prefer to wait a little longer before taking the plunge. There is a widespread belief that, if we hold on long enough, house prices will eventually fall. It is a human and understandable hope, as we all want to look after our savings and make the best investment for the well-being of our families. However, the reality of real estate market forecasts is drawing a very different map for the coming years.
If you are waiting for housing to drop drastically to buy, the scenario approaching for 2026 brings important news. It is not necessarily bad, but it does require us to look at the situation with fresh eyes and leave old myths behind. We are leaving behind years of high volatility and financial uncertainty to enter a new phase. Experts call this stabilisation, which sounds good on paper, but clashes head-on with a real problem: there are fewer and fewer homes available.
Let us speak clearly about money, which is what usually keeps us awake at night. Many of us remember with nostalgia those times when the Euribor was negative. We must be honest and admit that was a historic exception that is unlikely to be repeated in the short term. We will not see giveaway mortgages again. In fact, in Spain the interest rate will most likely sit within a bracket of between 2.1 and 2.6 per cent. It is the new base scenario.
The European Central Bank seems to feel comfortable at those figures to control inflation without stifling household economies. This means that money has a fair price and financing will be much more predictable. We will no longer have those shocks we have experienced recently, which allows us to plan the household budget with greater peace of mind. Even looking towards the United States, we see that the relaxation of their rates confirms a global cooling of prices.
But here is where the story begins to change course, and we must be attentive. While the cost of the mortgage stabilises and allows us to do clear sums, something worrying is happening with properties. Bricks and mortar are getting more expensive. Here lies the true challenge for those looking for their new home on the Costa del Sol. It is also where the opportunity lies for those who know how to read the moment. Although the bank may lend us money at a reasonable interest of 2.6 per cent, the price of the property is not going to wait for us.
It is estimated that prices will rise notably throughout 2026. We are not talking about decimals, but an increase that could hover around seven per cent annually. The reason is pure mathematics and there is no way around it. Spain needs many more homes than are currently being built. There is a lack of hands, cranes, and final building land in desired areas like ours. This is the simple equation that rules the market: when many people want to live here and there is little supply, prices go up.
That gap between what we need and what is built is getting bigger. Only a small part of the homes needed to cover the real demand of families looking for a home will be approved. Therefore, if you have purchasing power now, the strategy of waiting may prove expensive. The supposed future stability of interest rates will not compensate for the increase in the price per square metre that we will see month by month.
Furthermore, there is an interesting factor that many overlook when doing their calculations. Banks are betting heavily on sustainability and energy efficiency. Green mortgages are not just a trendy advertising slogan. If you invest in an efficient house or renovate to improve energy, banks offer better conditions. It is a clever way to save money month by month and, in addition, look after the environment we will leave to our children.
Ultimately, the year 2026 is shaping up to be a period of calm financing but scarce and highly sought-after housing. The key will not be to look obsessively at the interest rate, as we already know it will hover around that 2.5 per cent. The secret will be to anticipate the rise in the value of houses. Sometimes, prudence does not consist of waiting quietly on the shore, but in starting to swim before the rest.
Shall we talk about your future home?
We know that making decisions about your home generates doubts and sometimes a bit of vertigo. At Hernán Bustos – Real Estate Experts we do not have a crystal ball, but we do know the pulse of Benalmádena and the current market. If you want to analyse your specific case, have a coffee and see what real options you have before prices rise, we are here to listen. No strings attached, just an honest chat between neighbours who want the best for you.
Contact us today and let us plan your next step together.
